What sets this work apart from others is that it's based on solid evidence from what has actually happened since Limits to Growth was published forty years ago. It takes as its starting point the "Business As usual" scenario from Limits to Growth, which, worryingly, is the path that mankind has actually travelled in that forty years, so that the state of the world today is pretty much what the BAU scenario from Limits to Growth modelled in its 'base case' scenario. What this tells us is that not much of significance has changed in man's approach to sustainability for at least an entire generation. "Overshoot" is now inevitable. The real questions are now "how much overshoot?" and "what will the impacts be on people and planet?"
The work is not as doom-saying as Jonathan Lovelock, but not as optimistic as many head-in-the-sand or "mankind and technology always sorts things out" authors who,in my view, are over-optimistic.
Jorgen sets out a plausible future forecast for many economic, social and geographical / regional elements of human endeavour, recognising some of the significant tools mankind has, but also some of the impediments to progress to a sustainable future, for example the slow nature of decision-making at global political levels and within many organisations and institutions. This explains the inertia that is resulting in the overshoot of mankind beyond one-planet living.
One of the most interesting and thought-provoking sections is at the end, where Jorgen gives twenty pieces of advice about how best to respond to this unfolding future, such as teaching our children:
- not to expect to be able to visit entirely natural spaces in person (even as eco-tourists)
- to live happily in crowded cities
- to be content with virtual experiences rather than real physical ones
In a sense, what Jorgen suggests is to avoid the tendency of sustainabilitarians to "rage, rage against the dying of the light" (as in the famous Dylan Thomas poem about death and mourning), but rather to accept and embrace the future that is most likely to happen, and to prepare ourselves and future generations for some very different social and economic norms - a different reality from the one enjoyed by recent generations.
I think Jorgen's book will be very popular and influential and will become much cited and referenced in the coming decades.